Site Inputs
Total upfront: $825KMonthly fixed: $90K
3-Year NPV
$1,547,909
Break-even: Month 26·IRR: 58.5%·3-yr cash returned: $1.65M
Operator recommendation
NO-GO
Numbers don't support this site as structured: Yr-1 cash-on-cash -20.4% below floor of -15.0%. Re-cut inputs or walk.
3-yr NPV
$1,547,909
IRR
58.5%
Payback
Month 26
Yr-1 cash-on-cash
-20.4%
Cumulative cash flow
60 monthsSensitivity — NPV across scenarios
Ramp speed × mature revenue.
| Revenue −20% | Base | Revenue +20% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| fast ramp | $637K | $2.01M | $3.39M |
| typical ramp | $264K | $1.55M | $2.83M |
| slow ramp | $-96K | $1.10M | $2.29M |
All other inputs held at current values.
What would have to be true
- →Reach ~80% of mature monthly revenue ($240K) by Month 7.
- →Hold cannibalization from the hub at or below 15%.
- →Sustain 65% gross margin — protect specialty mix at 40% of revenue.
- →Keep monthly fixed cost at or below $90K — every added FTE moves break-even by ~1.2 days.
- →Hit cumulative cash break-even by Month 26 — track monthly variance starting Month 1.
Monthly P&L projection
| Mo | Revenue | Gross profit | Fixed | Net | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $0 | $0 | $90K | $-90K | $-915K |
| 2 | $8K | $5K | $90K | $-85K | $-1000K |
| 3 | $20K | $13K | $90K | $-77K | $-1.08M |
| 4 | $38K | $25K | $90K | $-65K | $-1.14M |
| 5 | $62K | $41K | $90K | $-49K | $-1.19M |
| 6 | $93K | $60K | $90K | $-30K | $-1.22M |
| 7 | $127K | $83K | $90K | $-7K | $-1.23M |
| 8 | $162K | $105K | $90K | $15K | $-1.21M |
| 9 | $193K | $125K | $90K | $35K | $-1.18M |
| 10 | $217K | $141K | $90K | $51K | $-1.13M |
| 11 | $235K | $153K | $90K | $63K | $-1.06M |
| 12 | $247K | $161K | $90K | $71K | $-993K |
| 13 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $-918K |
| 14 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $-842K |
| 15 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $-766K |
| 16 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $-690K |
| 17 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $-615K |
| 18 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $-539K |
| 19 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $-463K |
| 20 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $-387K |
| 21 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $-312K |
| 22 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $-236K |
| 23 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $-160K |
| 24 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $-84K |
| 25 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $-9K |
| 26 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $67K |
| 27 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $143K |
| 28 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $219K |
| 29 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $294K |
| 30 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $370K |
| 31 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $446K |
| 32 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $522K |
| 33 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $597K |
| 34 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $673K |
| 35 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $749K |
| 36 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $825K |
| 37 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $900K |
| 38 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $976K |
| 39 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $1.05M |
| 40 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $1.13M |
| 41 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $1.20M |
| 42 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $1.28M |
| 43 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $1.35M |
| 44 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $1.43M |
| 45 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $1.51M |
| 46 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $1.58M |
| 47 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $1.66M |
| 48 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $1.73M |
| 49 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $1.81M |
| 50 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $1.89M |
| 51 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $1.96M |
| 52 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $2.04M |
| 53 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $2.11M |
| 54 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $2.19M |
| 55 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $2.26M |
| 56 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $2.34M |
| 57 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $2.42M |
| 58 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $2.49M |
| 59 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $2.57M |
| 60 | $255K | $166K | $90K | $76K | $2.64M |
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